RAN Market’s Third Consecutive Quarter of Growth Masks the Real Story for Open RAN

When Dell’Oro Group released its latest RAN market report on August 18, 2026, the headline was cautiously optimistic: the worldwide Radio Access Network (RAN) market had achieved a third consecutive quarter of modest year-over-year growth, slightly exceeding expectations. For an industry that endured more than two years of contraction, this is welcome news. But for those of us tracking the open RAN movement, the report’s deeper implications are more significant than a few percentage points of recovery. The RAN market is not just stabilizing; it is undergoing a structural transformation that will determine whether open RAN finally fulfills its promise or remains a niche experiment.

The Long Road to Recovery

To appreciate where we are, we must look back at how we got here. The RAN market’s downturn began in late 2023, following a 5G capex supercycle that saw operators in developed markets deploy massive MIMO and mmWave networks. By 2024, the bubble had burst. Inventory gluts, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the exhaustion of early 5G use cases led to a sharp decline in RAN spending. Dell’Oro’s data showed year-over-year declines throughout 2024 and 2025, with some quarters seeing double-digit drops. The industry braced for a prolonged slump.

But then, something shifted. In Q4 2025, RAN revenue ticked up slightly. Q1 2026 followed suit. And now, Q2 2026 has confirmed the trend. According to Dell’Oro, worldwide RAN revenue increased modestly year-over-year in Q2, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth. The analyst firm maintains a broadly flat outlook for the full year, but the momentum is undeniable.

What drove this turnaround? Several factors. First, operators in emerging markets—particularly India, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa—have been aggressively expanding 5G coverage, offsetting weakness in mature markets. Second, the rise of fixed wireless access (FWA) as a broadband alternative has spurred additional RAN investment. Third, and most importantly for our purposes, the emergence of AI-RAN has started to influence procurement decisions. Operators are beginning to invest in RAN infrastructure that can support AI workloads, not just traditional traffic. This is a fundamental shift that Dell’Oro’s numbers only partially capture.

The AI-RAN Wave

The term “AI-RAN” has been bandied about for years, but 2026 is the year it moved from concept to commercial reality. In April, Nokia and NVIDIA announced a partnership to develop AI-native RAN solutions. In June, the AI-RAN Alliance—a consortium of operators, vendors, and cloud providers—reported a milestone of 132 members and 33 demos. And in July, Nokia launched what it called the industry’s first commercial AI-RAN platform, promising to run RAN workloads and AI applications on the same GPU-based infrastructure.

These developments are not just vendor hype. They reflect a genuine recognition that the RAN of the future will be software-defined, cloud-native, and AI-accelerated. The traditional purpose-built hardware that dominated the last decade is giving way to general-purpose processors and accelerators that can handle both RAN functions and AI inference. This convergence is what makes AI-RAN so compelling: it promises not only to reduce costs through hardware consolidation but also to enable new revenue streams by allowing operators to offer edge AI services to enterprises.

For open RAN, this is both an opportunity and a challenge. Open RAN’s core principle is disaggregation—separating hardware from software and using open interfaces to mix and match components from different vendors. AI-RAN builds on this by adding a new layer of intelligence that can optimize RAN performance in real time. The challenge is that AI-RAN often relies on proprietary accelerators (like NVIDIA’s GPUs) and specialized software stacks, which could undermine the openness that open RAN advocates have fought for.

The Dell’Oro Numbers and What They Mean

Let’s dig into the specifics of Dell’Oro’s report. The top five RAN suppliers by worldwide revenue in the first half of 2026 were, unsurprisingly, Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung. Together, they accounted for 96% of the market. This concentration is a double-edged sword for open RAN. On one hand, it shows that the incumbent vendors still dominate, making it difficult for new entrants to gain traction. On the other hand, it means that the major players are all investing in open RAN and AI-RAN, which could accelerate standardization.

Vendor performance was mixed. Huawei had a strong quarter, benefiting from continued investment in China and other markets where it has a strong foothold. Ericsson’s results were softer than expected, perhaps reflecting its pivot toward AI-RAN and the associated R&D costs. Nokia, meanwhile, has been aggressive in positioning itself as an AI-RAN leader, and its partnership with NVIDIA is a key part of that strategy.

But the most telling statistic is the overall RAN market’s modest growth. Dell’Oro’s outlook for the year is “broadly flat,” which suggests that the recovery is fragile. The growth is concentrated in specific regions and technology segments, not a broad-based rebound. For open RAN, this means that the market is not yet growing fast enough to absorb the costs of transitioning to new architectures. Operators are still cautious about deploying open RAN at scale, especially when the financial benefits are not yet proven.

Open RAN’s Evolution: From Standards to Economics

For years, the open RAN debate has been framed in ideological terms: open versus proprietary, innovation versus stagnation. But as I’ve argued before on this blog, the real battle is economic. Operators will adopt open RAN if it saves them money or makes them money. The technology has matured to the point where performance is no longer the primary barrier. The barriers now are integration costs, operational complexity, and the lack of a clear ROI case.

This is where AI-RAN comes in. By combining RAN and AI workloads on a common platform, operators can potentially reduce capital expenditure (by using fewer, more powerful servers) and operational expenditure (by automating network management). They can also create new revenue opportunities by offering AI-as-a-service to enterprises. This is the value proposition that could tip the scales in favor of open RAN.

However, there is a risk that AI-RAN becomes a Trojan horse for proprietary solutions. NVIDIA, for example, has been pushing its own AI Aerial platform, which is tightly integrated with its GPUs and software stack. While NVIDIA has been supportive of open RAN, its dominance in the AI accelerator market could create a new dependency that undermines the openness that open RAN was supposed to ensure.

The 6G Horizon

Looking further ahead, the RAN market’s future is inextricably linked to 6G. The first AI-native 6G cores are expected to run on 5G foundations, as Light Reading’s Gabriel Brown recently noted. The 6G architecture is likely to formalize a new AI domain in the core network, with network functions built around embedded agents orchestrated by an agentic AI plane. This will require a level of flexibility and programmability that only open, software-defined architectures can provide.

For open RAN, 6G represents both an opportunity and a deadline. The opportunity is that 6G will be designed from the ground up to be AI-native, which aligns perfectly with the open RAN ethos. The deadline is that the industry must demonstrate that open RAN can deliver on its promises before the 6G era begins in earnest, around 2030. If open RAN is still struggling to gain traction in 5G, it will be hard to convince operators to bet on it for 6G.

The Geopolitical Dimension

It’s impossible to discuss the RAN market without acknowledging the geopolitical forces at play. The U.S. and China are engaged in a high-stakes competition over AI and telecommunications. China has been aggressively promoting its own technology standards and digital sovereignty, while the U.S. is pushing to exclude Huawei and ZTE from Western networks. This has fragmented the global RAN market into distinct spheres of influence.

For open RAN, this fragmentation is a mixed blessing. On one hand, it creates opportunities for vendors from third countries and for open RAN to serve as a neutral alternative. On the other hand, it complicates supply chains and standardization efforts. The recent U.S. push to get countries to choose sides in the AI race, as reported by Reuters, could further polarize the market.

What This Means for Operators

So, what should operators take away from Dell’Oro’s latest report? First, the RAN market is stabilizing, but growth is modest and uneven. This means that operators should be strategic about their RAN investments, focusing on areas where they can achieve quick wins and long-term benefits. Second, AI-RAN is becoming a reality, and operators need to evaluate how it fits into their network evolution plans. This is not just about technology; it’s about business model transformation. Operators that can leverage AI-RAN to offer new services and reduce costs will be better positioned than those that simply view it as another RAN upgrade.

Third, open RAN is no longer just about replacing proprietary hardware with open interfaces. It’s about creating an ecosystem that supports innovation and agility. This requires a shift in mindset from procurement to partnership. Operators need to work closely with vendors, cloud providers, and system integrators to build networks that are flexible, intelligent, and future-proof.

The Road Ahead

The RAN market’s third consecutive quarter of growth is a positive sign, but it’s not a cause for celebration. The industry is still navigating a complex transition from purpose-built, hardware-centric networks to software-defined, AI-native architectures. Open RAN is at the heart of this transition, but its success is not guaranteed. It will require continued investment, collaboration, and a willingness to embrace new business models.

As we look toward 2026 and beyond, the question is not whether open RAN will succeed, but how quickly it will scale. The market is moving in the right direction, but the pace of change is still too slow for those of us who believe in the transformative potential of open networks. The next few years will be critical. If open RAN can ride the AI wave and deliver on its economic promise, it will become the standard for future networks. If not, it may remain a niche experiment, a footnote in the history of telecommunications.

For now, the data from Dell’Oro gives us reason for cautious optimism. The RAN market is growing again, and the seeds of AI-RAN are being planted. It’s up to the industry to nurture them.

Sources

• Dell’Oro Group via Telecoms.com: Global RAN market enjoys another modest helping of growth
• Light Reading: Why the first AI-native 6G cores will run on 5G foundations
• Reuters: US advisory body says China’s data dominance gives it AI advantage
• Global Banking & Finance Review: China urges respect for digital sovereignty in AI race