Omdia's RAN Market Data Reveals the Real AI-RAN Opportunity Is Outside China
- August 22, 2026
- 8 mins
- Technology
- 5g ai ran china omdia open ran ran market telecom
Omdia’s RAN Market Data Reveals the Real AI-RAN Opportunity Is Outside China
The Global RAN Market in H1 2026: A Tale of Two Regions
Omdia’s latest assessment of the radio access network (RAN) market, covering the first half of 2026, paints a picture that is both reassuring and challenging for the industry. The global RAN market—hardware and software, excluding services—stood at approximately $17 billion in H1 2026. That headline number is roughly flat year-over-year, but the composition of growth tells a far more nuanced story. While China, the world’s largest single RAN market, continued to contract, the rest of the world—specifically Asia-Pacific excluding China, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America—delivered single-digit percentage growth. The result: global growth was modestly positive, but only because of strength outside China.
For anyone tracking the Open RAN and AI-RAN movements, this regional divergence is not just a statistical curiosity. It is the strategic backdrop against which every investment decision in next-generation RAN infrastructure will be made. The operators and vendors that succeed in the next phase of the industry will be those that recognize that the growth engine has shifted decisively away from China, and that the opportunities for innovation—particularly AI-native and open architectures—are concentrated in markets where operators are actively modernizing their networks.
China’s Slowdown: A Structural Shift, Not a Cyclical Blip
China’s RAN market has been the industry’s powerhouse for over a decade, driven by massive 5G deployments and state-backed infrastructure programs. But that era is drawing to a close. With 5G coverage already extensive and the transition to 5G-Advanced and 6G still several years away, Chinese operators have little incentive to maintain the breakneck pace of capital expenditure that defined the early 2020s. Omdia’s data reflects this: China’s RAN spending has been declining, and the firm’s full-year forecast shows that weakness persisting, largely offsetting gains elsewhere.
This is not merely a cyclical pause. It is a structural shift. China’s operators have largely completed their initial 5G rollouts, and the incremental capacity and coverage gains from further investment are diminishing. Moreover, the Chinese government’s push for self-reliance in semiconductors and network equipment has led to a more domestically focused supply chain, reducing the addressable market for international vendors. For the global RAN ecosystem, this means that the era of double-digit growth driven by China is over. The future growth will be more modest, more fragmented, and more dependent on the ability to win in diverse markets across the world.
The Growth Engines: APAC ex-China, Europe, MEA, and Latin America
Omdia’s report identifies the key growth regions as Asia-Pacific excluding China, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America. Each of these regions has its own dynamics, but they share a common theme: operators are investing in network modernization, often with an eye toward AI and open architectures.
In Asia-Pacific excluding China, markets like India, Japan, and Southeast Asia are in various stages of 5G deployment and expansion. India, in particular, has been a bright spot, with operators like Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel aggressively rolling out 5G services. Japan and South Korea, meanwhile, are early adopters of 5G-Advanced and are experimenting with AI-RAN technologies, as evidenced by recent trials by NTT Docomo and SoftBank. In Southeast Asia, countries like Indonesia and Vietnam are beginning their 5G journeys, creating a fresh demand for RAN equipment.
Europe is a more mature market, but operators are still investing in network upgrades, particularly in rural coverage and indoor capacity. The region is also a hotbed for Open RAN pilots and deployments, driven by both regulatory pressure and a desire to reduce vendor lock-in. The European Commission’s push for digital sovereignty has led to increased interest in open and interoperable solutions, which bodes well for the Open RAN ecosystem.
The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region is a mixed bag. The Gulf states, with their ambitious smart-city projects and deep pockets, are investing heavily in 5G and even 6G research. African markets, while less developed, are seeing a surge in mobile data consumption, prompting operators to invest in network capacity. The region’s relatively low penetration of 5G offers significant upside for RAN vendors willing to navigate the unique challenges of these markets.
Latin America is similarly diverse, with countries like Brazil and Mexico leading the way in 5G adoption. The region has seen a wave of spectrum auctions, and operators are now focused on building out their networks. The relatively low cost of Open RAN solutions is particularly attractive in these price-sensitive markets.
The AI-RAN Imperative: Why Growth Regions Are Fertile Ground
The regional growth patterns identified by Omdia align perfectly with the adoption of AI-RAN and Open RAN technologies. In markets where operators are building new networks or upgrading existing ones, there is a natural opportunity to adopt next-generation architectures. AI-RAN, which integrates AI capabilities directly into the RAN, promises to improve spectral efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and enable new revenue-generating services. These benefits are particularly compelling for operators in growth regions who are looking to maximize the return on their network investments.
The recent trial by Ericsson and SoftBank in Japan, which demonstrated a 25% improvement in spectral efficiency and a 50% increase in downlink user throughput using AI-native scheduling, is a case in point. While the trial was conducted on a commercial 5G network, the technology is designed to be applicable to Open RAN environments. As operators in Asia-Pacific and other growth regions look to differentiate their networks, AI-RAN offers a path to superior performance without the need for a complete rip-and-replace.
Moreover, Open RAN’s promise of vendor diversity and cost reduction is particularly appealing in markets where operators are sensitive to capital expenditures. The ability to mix and match components from multiple vendors, and to deploy software-defined RAN on commodity hardware, can significantly lower the total cost of ownership. This is a key consideration for operators in Latin America, MEA, and parts of Asia-Pacific where budgets are constrained.
The Omdia Data in Context: What It Means for Open RAN
Omdia’s data provides a quantitative foundation for the qualitative trends that have been shaping the RAN industry. The fact that growth is coming from outside China is not new, but the persistence of this trend is significant. It suggests that the center of gravity for RAN innovation is shifting. While China will remain a major market for domestic vendors, the international market is becoming more competitive and more open to new approaches.
For Open RAN, this is a positive development. The regions driving growth—APAC ex-China, Europe, MEA, and Latin America—are also the regions where Open RAN has gained the most traction. In Europe, for example, operators like Vodafone and Telefónica have been vocal proponents of Open RAN, and several have launched commercial deployments. In Asia-Pacific, Japan’s Rakuten Mobile has been a pioneer, and other operators in the region are now following suit. In MEA, operators like Zain and Etisalat have shown interest in Open RAN as a way to improve network economics.
The Omdia data also underscores the importance of software and AI in the RAN market. With hardware becoming more commoditized, the value is shifting to software and intelligence. This is exactly where Open RAN and AI-RAN excel. By disaggregating hardware and software, Open RAN enables operators to deploy best-of-breed solutions, while AI-RAN adds a layer of intelligence that can optimize performance in real-time.
The Path Forward: Navigating the Post-China RAN Market
For vendors and operators alike, the implications of Omdia’s data are clear. The days of relying on China for growth are over. To succeed in the global RAN market, companies must focus on the regions that are expanding—APAC ex-China, Europe, MEA, and Latin America. This requires a deep understanding of the unique needs of each market, from the cost-sensitive operators in emerging economies to the technology-forward operators in developed ones.
It also requires a commitment to innovation. The operators in these growth regions are not simply looking for cheaper versions of existing equipment; they are looking for solutions that can help them leapfrog the competition. AI-RAN, with its promise of improved performance and new capabilities, is a key differentiator. Open RAN, with its flexibility and cost advantages, is equally important.
The convergence of these two trends—the geographic shift in RAN demand and the rise of AI-native, open architectures—creates a unique opportunity for the industry. The operators that embrace these changes will be well-positioned to thrive in the next decade. The vendors that support them with innovative, open, and intelligent solutions will find willing customers.
A Call to Action for the Open RAN Community
The Open RAN community has long argued that the technology is ready for prime time. Omdia’s data provides the market context to prove it. The growth regions are precisely where Open RAN can deliver the most value. It is time for the industry to double down on these markets, to demonstrate the tangible benefits of open, AI-powered networks, and to move beyond trials and pilots to full-scale commercial deployments.
As the RAN market evolves, the winners will be those who can navigate the shifting geography of demand and who can deliver the intelligence and flexibility that operators increasingly require. The Omdia data is a wake-up call: the future of RAN is being written outside China, and it is being written with AI and open architectures at the core.