Open RAN’s Global Momentum: Deep Dive Into Carrier Strategies, Successes, and Setbacks

Open RAN (Open Radio Access Network) is no longer just a disruptive concept—it has become a central pillar in the transformation of mobile networks worldwide. While early adopters like Rakuten and Jio have demonstrated its potential, the real story now unfolds in the diverse strategies, ambitions, and realities of dozens of carriers across Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas. This in-depth article explores the evolving Open RAN landscape, carrier by carrier, region by region, drawing on the latest deployments, commercial decisions, and industry collaborations to reveal the true state—and future—of telecom’s most ambitious technology shift.

The Global Open RAN Market: Growth, Challenges, and Shifting Dynamics

• Market Size and Growth: As of 2025, Open RAN accounts for 5–10% of the global RAN market, valued between $3.98 billion and$6.53 billion. Projections suggest it could reach up to 30% of the RAN market (as much as $41.5 billion) by 2028, driven by the need for flexibility, cost efficiency, and vendor diversity[1].
• Talent and Skills: The transition to Open RAN is fueling demand for engineers skilled in cloud-native architectures, multi-vendor integration, virtualization, and AI-driven automation[1].
• Technology Maturity: The technology gap between Open RAN and traditional RAN is closing, with tens of thousands of Open RAN sites now live globally, and large-scale deployments planned from 2025 onward[8].

Europe: Ambition, Collaboration, and Cautious Scale

The “Big Five” European Operators

In 2021, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica, Vodafone, and Telecom Italia (TIM) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to accelerate Open RAN adoption, focusing on technology maturity, security, and energy efficiency[8][18]. Their collective agenda is shaping the European Open RAN ecosystem:

• Maturity: The technology is now approaching parity with traditional RAN, especially for 4G/5G in less dense areas. Urban deployments and massive MIMO remain challenging but are progressing[8][10].
• Security: Operators are collaborating with national authorities and EU agencies to integrate Open RAN into certification schemes, addressing concerns about supply chain security and network integrity[8].
• Energy Efficiency: Open RAN’s cloudification and AI-driven management are expected to drive down energy consumption as deployments scale[18].

Vodafone: The Bellwether

• Spring 6 Refresh: Vodafone’s massive network refresh, covering 170,000 sites across Europe and Africa, is a litmus test for Open RAN’s commercial viability. The operator aims for at least 30% of its European sites to run on Open RAN by 2030, with Samsung and NEC likely as key suppliers for radio units, and Mavenir playing a smaller role[2][7][20].
• Supplier Diversity: Despite the vision of a more competitive market, the vendor landscape remains dominated by a few giants—Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung—with smaller players like Mavenir struggling to gain significant share[7][20].
• Rural Innovation: Vodafone and Orange have partnered to share Open RAN networks in rural Romania, marking Europe’s first shared Open RAN deployment and demonstrating the technology’s flexibility for cost-effective rural coverage[5].

Deutsche Telekom: From “O-RAN Town” to Urban Scale

• Pioneering Pilots: DT’s O-RAN Town pilot in Neubrandenburg was a multivendor showcase, leading to commercial deployments with Nokia and Fujitsu[4].
• Scale and Delays: DT’s original target of 3,000 Open RAN sites by 2026 has slipped to 2027, reflecting integration challenges and Germany’s shifting stance on Huawei[9].
• Collaborative Ecosystem: DT is a driving force behind the O-RAN ALLIANCE and the Open RAN MoU group, pushing for standardized, interoperable solutions and publishing technical priorities to guide the industry[18].

Orange: Strategic Evolution

• 2025 Mandate: Orange plans to deploy only Open RAN-compliant equipment for European upgrades from 2025 onward, with a focus on virtualized, AI-native architectures[19].
• Vendor Pairing: Orange is keen to combine solutions from Ericsson and Nokia at the same site, but notes that true multi-vendor, high-performance Open RAN for advanced 5G (massive MIMO) remains a work in progress[10].
• Ecosystem Development: Orange is deeply involved in MoU group initiatives, white papers, and shared deployments, aiming to foster a non-fragmented, competitive Open RAN ecosystem[5][8].

Telefónica: Global Trials and Digital Ambition

• Multi-Country Trials: Telefónica has conducted Open RAN pilots for 4G and 5G in the UK, Germany, Spain, and Brazil, working with Altiostar, Intel, and others[3].
• Digital Reorganization: The operator is restructuring its business units for a digital, cloud-native future, integrating AI and edge computing with Open RAN as a foundational technology[3].
• Collaborative Research: Telefónica has partnered with Rakuten for research and lab trials, reinforcing the global knowledge exchange around Open RAN[19].

Telecom Italia (TIM): Urban and Rural Progress

• Italian Pilots: TIM is deploying Open RAN for 4G in Faenza, with plans to extend to 5G. JMA Wireless and MTI are key vendors[19].
• MoU Commitment: As a signatory to the European MoU, TIM is committed to scaling Open RAN across its footprint as technology matures[8][18].

North America: From Skepticism to Scale

AT&T: From Pilots to National Rollout

• Ambitious Targets: AT&T is deploying Open RAN at scale, aiming for 70% of its wireless traffic to run on Open RAN platforms by late 2026, with a $14 billion investment over five years[16].
• Multi-Vendor Approach: Partners include Ericsson, Fujitsu, Dell, Intel, Mavenir, and Corning. Small cell deployments in dense urban areas are a focus, leveraging the open ecosystem for better power levels and user experience[16].
• Industry Shift: AT&T notes that Open RAN is now being embraced by incumbents like Ericsson and Nokia, not just disruptors, signaling a major industry shift[16].
• Operational Realities: Progress is steady but measured, with small cells serving as a proving ground for Open RAN’s benefits and challenges[16].

T-Mobile US: Wait-and-See

• Performance Concerns: T-Mobile remains cautious, citing Open RAN’s inability to match traditional RAN performance, especially for advanced AI-driven workloads and dense urban environments[6].
• AI Integration: The operator is exploring AI-powered RAN (AI RAN) with Nvidia GPUs, which may eventually complement or “supercharge” Open RAN, but for now, T-Mobile is holding back on large-scale Open RAN deployment[6].

Asia: Innovation, Regulation, and Early Leadership

Japan: Rakuten and NTT Docomo

• Rakuten Mobile: The world’s first large-scale, fully virtualized Open RAN network, Rakuten covers nearly all of Japan with a multi-vendor, cloud-native architecture. It has become a global reference, partnering with NEC and Fujitsu to develop O-RAN-based solutions and licensing its Rakuten Communications Platform (RCP) to operators worldwide[19].
• NTT Docomo: Deployed Open RAN-based 5G sites in Tokyo, using open interfaces and a vendor mix including NEC, Samsung, Fujitsu, and Nokia[19].

India: Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea

• Jio: Reliance Jio is leveraging Open RAN for rapid 4G/5G expansion, using vendor-neutral hardware and automation to manage its vast network[19].
• Bharti Airtel: Launched Open RAN at 2,500 rural sites, with plans to expand to 10,000 by end-2025, focusing on cost-effective rural coverage and automation[14].
• Vodafone Idea (Vi): Running Open RAN pilots, with limited rollout expected in select markets[14].

Southeast Asia: Trials and Smart Cities

• Thailand: National Telecom (NT) deployed an Open RAN-based private 5G network in Ban Chang, partnering with Mavenir and Cisco for smart city solutions[19].
• Vietnam and the Philippines: Operators like Viettel and Smart Communications are trialing Open RAN automation for energy savings, traffic steering, and network optimization[14].

APAC Regulatory Landscape

• Supportive Policies: Japan, South Korea, and parts of Southeast Asia benefit from government incentives and regulatory support, accelerating Open RAN trials and deployments[15].
• Barriers: In other APAC markets, restrictive regulations around spectrum and vendor access slow adoption, highlighting the importance of local policy in Open RAN’s success[15].

Africa and the Middle East: Rural Connectivity and Cost Efficiency

• Parallel Wireless: Deployed Open RAN at 1,500 sites across Nigeria, Tanzania, Ghana, Uganda, and other countries, focusing on 2G/3G in rural areas and 2G/4G in urban/suburban zones[17].
• Vendor Diversity: Operators are leveraging Open RAN to extend coverage in challenging environments, often working with multiple vendors to navigate local constraints[17].
• Emerging Market Dynamics: While Open RAN’s promise of vendor choice is appealing, many operators in emerging markets still prefer single-vendor simplicity for support and integration. Large-scale transitions are expected later in the decade, as automation and cost benefits mature[14].

PlugFests, Standards, and the Evolving Ecosystem

• O-RAN ALLIANCE PlugFests: Global PlugFests in 2025 involved 22 operators, 69 companies, and 19 labs, advancing automated, cloud-native RAN deployment, AI-powered test automation, and energy savings of 25–30%[13].
• Technical Priorities: The MoU Group’s technical priorities now emphasize intelligence, orchestration, transport, and cloud infrastructure, aiming for fully automated, interoperable, and energy-efficient Open RAN systems[18].
• Ecosystem Maturity: Despite progress, the market remains dominated by a few large vendors, with smaller innovators playing niche roles, especially in indoor and neutral host scenarios[10].

Challenges and Realities: Integration, Performance, and Market Structure

• Integration Complexity: Multi-vendor deployments require rigorous testing and integration, particularly for advanced 5G features like massive MIMO and beamforming, where intellectual property and standardization gaps persist[10].
• Performance Gaps: Open RAN’s performance in dense urban environments still trails traditional RAN, especially for high-throughput, low-latency applications[6][10].
• Market Concentration: Despite Open RAN’s promise, the RAN market is still dominated by Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung, with Huawei and ZTE facing regulatory bans in many regions[7].
• Investment Cycles: Slowdowns in 5G investments in the US and Japan have tempered Open RAN’s torrid growth, with revenue declining in 2024 before rebounding as new deployments ramp up[11].
• Regulatory and Security Concerns: Security frameworks, certification schemes, and regulatory support are critical to Open RAN’s future, especially in Europe and APAC[8][15].

Looking Ahead: The Next Phase of Open RAN

• Major Deployments: Vodafone’s Spring 6 refresh and AT&T’s national rollout will serve as bellwethers for Open RAN’s long-term viability and impact on the global vendor landscape[16][20].
• Urban Expansion: As technology matures, focus will shift from rural and suburban to urban and high-density deployments, closing the feature and performance gap with traditional RAN[8].
• Automation and AI: Enhanced automation, AI-driven optimization, and energy management will be key differentiators, especially as operators seek to reduce costs and carbon footprints[13][14].
• Ecosystem Growth: Continued collaboration through PlugFests, MoUs, and open-source communities will drive interoperability, innovation, and new business models[13][18].
• Emerging Markets: Large-scale Open RAN adoption in Africa, India, and Southeast Asia is expected in the second half of the decade, as automation and cost benefits become more compelling[14][17].

Conclusion: Open RAN’s Global Journey—A Marathon, Not a Sprint

Open RAN’s journey is marked by ambition, experimentation, and incremental progress. While the technology has not yet delivered the full vision of a vibrant, multi-vendor market, it has already transformed the strategic calculus of carriers worldwide. The coming years will see Open RAN move from pilots and rural deployments to urban scale, from a handful of vendors to a broader ecosystem, and from technical novelty to operational norm.

As Vodafone, AT&T, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica, Rakuten, Jio, and dozens of others push forward—sometimes boldly, sometimes cautiously—the future of Open RAN will be shaped by their successes, setbacks, and the lessons learned along the way. The open, intelligent, and automated networks of tomorrow are being built today, one site, one partnership, and one innovation at a time. The race is far from over, but the direction is set—and the world is watching.

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