Open RAN Investments: Financial Models and Stock Market Impact Across Leading Companies

Open RAN (Open Radio Access Network) is transforming the telecom sector, promising cost savings, flexibility, and a diversified vendor ecosystem. As operators and vendors double down on Open RAN, their financial strategies and stock performance offer a window into the technology’s real-world impact and future prospects. This article dives deep into the investment models behind Open RAN, reviews the financial health of key players, and analyzes how these moves are reflected in their stock prices.

Open RAN Investment Models: How Are Companies Funding the Revolution?

Operator Investment Pathways

Operators approach Open RAN investment through several financial models, tailored to their market position and strategic goals:

• Direct Capex Allocation: Major carriers like AT&T and Rakuten earmark significant portions of their capital expenditure (capex) for Open RAN-specific projects, often as part of broader network modernization programs.
• Vendor Financing: Some deals, especially in emerging markets, are structured with vendor or export credit financing, reducing upfront cash requirements for operators.
• Offshore and Syndicated Loans: Companies like Reliance Jio leverage large-scale offshore loans, often backed by export credit agencies, to fund rapid network rollouts.
• Greenfield vs. Brownfield Strategies: Greenfield operators (e.g., 1&1 Drillisch) can allocate nearly all RAN capex to Open RAN, while incumbent operators transition gradually, balancing legacy and Open RAN investments[1].

Market-Wide Capex Trends

STL Partners’ global forecast models five scenarios for Open RAN investment, ranging from “pure” greenfield adoption (100% RAN capex to Open RAN) to incremental, brownfield upgrades. Their analysis, based on financial data from 18 operators, estimates that Open RAN’s share of global RAN capex will continue to rise through 2030, driven by cost-effectiveness and the need for supply chain diversity[1].

Case Studies: Financial Models and Stock Trends

AT&T: Massive Capex, Gradual Stock Recovery

• Investment Model: AT&T is investing $14 billion over five years in Open RAN, primarily through direct capex. The company is reducing reliance on vendor financing, opting to directly fund nearly all spending as it transitions from Nokia to Ericsson equipment[3][5].
• Financial Impact: AT&T’s capital investment is set to reach $21–22 billion in 2024, with a significant uptick in the second half of the year attributed to Open RAN rollout. This marks the highest six-month spend in six years, signaling strong commitment to network modernization[3].
• Stock Performance: AT&T’s stock began 2024 at $16.78 and traded at$19.01 by late May 2025, a 13% increase. Forecasts suggest continued moderate growth, with projections of $21.16 by year-end 2025 and a steady rise to$30 by the end of 2025, $35 by 2026, and$45 by 2030[8]. This upward trend reflects investor confidence in AT&T’s modernization and Open RAN strategy.

Rakuten Mobile: Cost Savings, Stock Headwinds

• Investment Model: Rakuten’s Open vRAN approach aims for a 30% reduction in capex for site development and a 40% reduction in opex compared to traditional RAN. The company’s strategy is to leverage cloud-native, virtualized infrastructure for maximum cost efficiency[4].
• Financial Impact: Rakuten’s aggressive investment in Open RAN has enabled rapid network expansion, but the company has faced challenges in monetizing these investments at scale.
• Stock Performance: Rakuten Inc ADR (RKUNY) trades at $5.57 as of May 2025, continuing a long-term downtrend since 2013. Forecasts predict only marginal growth over the next year, with a five-year outlook suggesting further decline to around$5.08, reflecting ongoing market skepticism about profitability and the heavy upfront investment in Open RAN[7].

Reliance Jio: Leveraging Loans and Diverse Vendor Deals

• Investment Model: Reliance Jio is raising $2 billion in offshore loans, backed by export credit guarantees, to fund 5G and Open RAN equipment purchases from Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung. These deals are often structured with support from global banks and export credit agencies, reducing risk and spreading repayment over time[6].
• Financial Impact: Jio’s rapid 5G rollout is supported by a mix of vendor financing, syndicated loans, and guarantees, allowing the company to scale quickly while managing cash flow.
• Stock Performance: Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN) has seen significant volatility, with prices ranging from ₹241 to ₹360 in the first half of 2025. Despite fluctuations, the stock shows resilience, reflecting investor optimism about Jio’s growth and its aggressive network expansion[9].

Mavenir: Disaggregated Model, Revenue Diversity

• Investment Model: Mavenir, a key Open RAN software vendor, has shifted to a disaggregated model, integrating its software with third-party hardware. The company’s bookings for fiscal 2024 are expected to reach at least $650 million, with Open RAN representing less than 25% of revenue. Mavenir also has strong positions in messaging, IMS, and packet core, providing revenue diversity[10].
• Financial Impact: Despite healthy bookings, Mavenir faces financial scrutiny due to loan obligations and the need to achieve scale in Open RAN. The company has adjusted its RAN investments to match market demand and continues to pursue growth in adjacent areas like AI and direct-to-device satellite solutions[10].
• Stock Status: Mavenir is not publicly listed, but its financial health is closely watched as a bellwether for the Open RAN vendor ecosystem.

Ericsson, Nokia, and Other Vendors: Riding the Open RAN Wave

• Ericsson: As AT&T’s primary Open RAN partner, Ericsson stands to benefit from massive US capex. The stock recently traded at $8.66, with a short-term upward trend and a forecasted rise of 3.6% over the next three months. The company’s exposure to Open RAN is expected to support moderate growth, though overall market volatility remains[12].
• Nokia: Nokia’s stock has risen 15% since the start of 2024, trading at $3.92 and forecasted to reach$6.36 by the end of 2025 (+44% year-on-year). Nokia’s Open RAN business, bolstered by deals with Jio and other global operators, is contributing to positive investor sentiment[11].

Regional Market Growth and Economic Impact

• North America: The Open RAN market is projected to grow at a staggering 36.6% CAGR, from $1.02 billion in 2024 to$23.24 billion by 2034. This growth is driven by demand for flexible, cost-efficient infrastructure and is expected to spur innovation, job creation, and digital transformation[2].
• Global Trends: Operators worldwide are increasingly allocating RAN capex to Open RAN, with scenarios ranging from incremental upgrades to full greenfield rollouts. Financial models are evolving to balance risk, leverage vendor support, and maximize returns[1].

Key Takeaways: The Financial Future of Open RAN

• Investment Models Are Diverse: Operators use a mix of direct capex, vendor financing, and syndicated loans to fund Open RAN, tailored to their strategic needs and market context.
• Cost Savings Are Real, But So Are Risks: While Open RAN can deliver significant capex and opex reductions (as seen with Rakuten), heavy upfront investment and integration complexity can weigh on financial performance.
• Stock Performance Reflects Strategic Positioning: Companies with diversified revenue streams and strong Open RAN partnerships (AT&T, Nokia, Ericsson) are seeing steady or improving stock trends. Pure-play or heavily invested Open RAN pioneers (Rakuten) face greater market skepticism.
• Market Growth Is Accelerating: North America and India are leading Open RAN adoption, with aggressive investment and rapid deployment, while Europe and other regions are ramping up.
• Vendor Ecosystem Is Evolving: Software-centric vendors like Mavenir are diversifying revenue and adjusting investment, while traditional giants are leveraging Open RAN to maintain relevance and capture new opportunities.

Open RAN’s financial story is one of bold bets, evolving models, and market recalibration. As the technology matures and deployments scale, the interplay between investment strategies and stock market performance will remain a key indicator of Open RAN’s long-term impact on the telecom industry.

Citations: [1] https://stlpartners.com/articles/network-innovation/open-ran-capex-global-market-forecast/ [2] https://scoop.market.us/north-america-open-ran-market-news/ [3] https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/at-t-s-spending-to-hit-six-year-high-as-it-ramps-ericsson-open-ran- [4] https://www.abiresearch.com/market-research/product/7778118-rakuten-mobiles-open-virtual-radio-access-/ [5] https://www.rcrwireless.com/20241001/carriers/att-sees-open-ran-enabling-continuous-innovation [6] https://totaltele.com/reliance-jio-seeks-2-billion-funding-for-5g-rollout/ [7] https://gov.capital/stock/rkuny-stock/ [8] https://coinpriceforecast.com/t-stock [9] https://www.equitypandit.com/historical-data/JIOFIN [10] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/mavenir/mavenir-ceo-points-to-strong-2024-as-speculation-swirls/ [11] https://coinpriceforecast.com/nokia [12] https://stockinvest.us/stock/ERIC [13] https://www.ey.com/en_jp/insights/telecommunications/open-ran-will-change-the-future-of-the-telecom-industry [14] https://www.kearney.com/industry/technology/article/-/insights/what-are-the-economic-benefits-of-open-ran-and-how-do-they-differ-for-greenfield-and-brownfield-setups [15] https://telecominfraproject.com/openran/ [16] https://tecknexus.com/5g-network/5g-magazine-open-ran-june-2021/current-state-of-open-ran-countries-operators-deploying-trialing-open-ran/ [17] https://www.investing.com/equities/rakuten-inc-historical-data [18] https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/jp:4755/forecast [19] https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/rakuten-TYO:4755/ [20] https://ca.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RAKUTEN-GROUP-INC-6814873/finances/